Browns vs Buccaneers — NFL Week 2 Model Projection
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Cleveland Browns
23.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
76.6%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
8.5
Total
41.5
Cleveland Browns moneyline
+310
Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline
-395
Season stats
Cleveland Browns
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
16.6
-
Passing yds / game
183.5
192.4
Rushing yds / game
96.9
137.2
Passing TD / game
0.88
1.12
Rushing TD / game
0.5
1.38
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
20.0
-
Passing yds / game
195.4
254.6
Rushing yds / game
131.1
97.1
Passing TD / game
1.25
2.12
Rushing TD / game
0.88
0.88
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Browns vs Buccaneers on Phins Up.