Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 2

Panthers vs Falcons — NFL Week 2 Model Projection

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Carolina Panthers57.2%
Atlanta Falcons42.8%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)-2.5
Total43.5
Carolina Panthers moneyline-148
Atlanta Falcons moneyline+124

Season stats

Carolina PanthersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game20.6-
Passing yds / game220.1216.2
Rushing yds / game91.1136.6
Passing TD / game1.621.25
Rushing TD / game0.621.38
Atlanta FalconsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game23.1-
Passing yds / game211.8265.0
Rushing yds / game133.0103.5
Passing TD / game1.251.62
Rushing TD / game1.00.5
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Panthers vs Falcons on Phins Up.