Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 20:20 ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
Indianapolis Colts GOOD VALUE
35.6%
29.0%
+6.5%
Kansas City Chiefs
64.4%
71.0%
-6.5%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
6.5
Total
46.5
Indianapolis Colts moneyline
+230
Kansas City Chiefs moneyline
-285
Season stats
Indianapolis Colts
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
22.0
-
Passing yds / game
209.0
260.8
Rushing yds / game
109.6
118.6
Passing TD / game
1.38
1.12
Rushing TD / game
1.0
1.25
Kansas City Chiefs
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
15.9
-
Passing yds / game
199.8
215.5
Rushing yds / game
90.1
107.0
Passing TD / game
0.75
1.12
Rushing TD / game
0.5
0.62
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Colts vs Chiefs on Phins Up.