Steelers vs Patriots — NFL Week 2 Model Projection
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Pittsburgh Steelers
33.6%
New England Patriots
66.4%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
5.5
Total
41.5
Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline
+185
New England Patriots moneyline
-225
Season stats
Pittsburgh Steelers
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
19.6
-
Passing yds / game
209.0
234.0
Rushing yds / game
117.1
127.8
Passing TD / game
0.75
1.88
Rushing TD / game
1.38
0.5
New England Patriots
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
25.8
-
Passing yds / game
232.9
169.6
Rushing yds / game
149.2
115.1
Passing TD / game
1.75
0.88
Rushing TD / game
1.38
0.75
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Steelers vs Patriots on Phins Up.