Monday, September 21, 2026 · 20:15 ET · SoFi Stadium (dome)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
New York Giants GOOD VALUE
31.5%
25.2%
+6.3%
Los Angeles Rams
68.5%
74.8%
-6.3%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
7.0
Total
47.5
New York Giants moneyline
+280
Los Angeles Rams moneyline
-355
Season stats
New York Giants
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
23.0
-
Passing yds / game
217.8
208.4
Rushing yds / game
141.8
140.0
Passing TD / game
1.0
1.25
Rushing TD / game
1.38
1.12
Los Angeles Rams
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
33.1
-
Passing yds / game
321.2
267.9
Rushing yds / game
141.4
113.5
Passing TD / game
2.5
2.0
Rushing TD / game
1.25
1.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Giants vs Rams on Phins Up.