Commanders vs Cowboys — NFL Week 2 Model Projection
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 16:25 ET · AT&T Stadium
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Washington Commanders
33.6%
Dallas Cowboys
66.4%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
4.5
Total
50.5
Washington Commanders moneyline
+185
Dallas Cowboys moneyline
-225
Season stats
Washington Commanders
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
19.4
-
Passing yds / game
188.2
244.2
Rushing yds / game
128.9
161.0
Passing TD / game
0.88
1.75
Rushing TD / game
1.12
1.38
Dallas Cowboys
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
26.0
-
Passing yds / game
289.6
259.4
Rushing yds / game
131.2
105.8
Passing TD / game
1.62
1.62
Rushing TD / game
1.0
1.62
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Commanders vs Cowboys on Phins Up.