Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 20:15 ET · Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
Detroit Lions GOOD VALUE
39.5%
33.1%
+6.4%
Buffalo Bills
60.5%
66.9%
-6.4%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
4.5
Total
54.5
Detroit Lions moneyline
+190
Buffalo Bills moneyline
-230
Season stats
Detroit Lions
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
24.8
-
Passing yds / game
291.1
255.1
Rushing yds / game
101.8
137.2
Passing TD / game
1.75
1.62
Rushing TD / game
1.0
1.12
Buffalo Bills
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
28.4
-
Passing yds / game
221.8
171.1
Rushing yds / game
169.6
112.6
Passing TD / game
1.88
1.62
Rushing TD / game
1.5
0.88
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Lions vs Bills on Phins Up.