Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 2

Dolphins vs 49ers — NFL Week 2 Model Projection

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 16:25 ET · Levi's Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Miami Dolphins12.8%
San Francisco 49ers87.2%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)13.5
Total45.5
Miami Dolphins moneyline+650
San Francisco 49ers moneyline-1000

Season stats

Miami DolphinsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game20.9-
Passing yds / game181.2253.0
Rushing yds / game146.1117.6
Passing TD / game1.01.75
Rushing TD / game1.251.0
San Francisco 49ersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game25.6-
Passing yds / game227.0198.1
Rushing yds / game119.6125.8
Passing TD / game2.01.25
Rushing TD / game0.881.12
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Dolphins vs 49ers on Phins Up.