Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Bengals vs Steelers — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Cincinnati Bengals62.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers37.8%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)-3.5
Total42.5
Cincinnati Bengals moneyline-185
Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline+154

Season stats

Cincinnati BengalsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game27.4-
Passing yds / game262.4217.5
Rushing yds / game110.4122.5
Passing TD / game2.121.0
Rushing TD / game0.881.0
Pittsburgh SteelersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game18.6-
Passing yds / game215.2222.0
Rushing yds / game101.1130.4
Passing TD / game0.751.62
Rushing TD / game1.120.38
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Bengals vs Steelers on Phins Up.