Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Houston Texans
56.4%
Indianapolis Colts
43.6%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-2.5
Total
43.5
Houston Texans moneyline
-142
Indianapolis Colts moneyline
+120
Season stats
Houston Texans
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
27.2
-
Passing yds / game
229.4
224.1
Rushing yds / game
112.0
93.4
Passing TD / game
1.5
1.62
Rushing TD / game
0.62
0.75
Indianapolis Colts
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
21.0
-
Passing yds / game
197.9
279.1
Rushing yds / game
82.0
126.4
Passing TD / game
1.38
1.12
Rushing TD / game
0.88
1.5
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Texans vs Colts on Phins Up.