Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Patriots vs Jaguars — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · EverBank Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
New England Patriots40.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars59.3%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)3.0
Total45.5
New England Patriots moneyline+136
Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline-162

Season stats

New England PatriotsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game23.1-
Passing yds / game235.8170.5
Rushing yds / game132.1106.2
Passing TD / game1.880.62
Rushing TD / game0.880.5
Jacksonville JaguarsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game33.1-
Passing yds / game258.9202.9
Rushing yds / game103.487.4
Passing TD / game2.750.62
Rushing TD / game1.01.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Patriots vs Jaguars on Phins Up.