Seahawks vs Commanders — NFL Week 3 Model Projection
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Northwest Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Seattle Seahawks
71.8%
Washington Commanders
28.2%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-7.0
Total
40.5
Seattle Seahawks moneyline
-298
Washington Commanders moneyline
+240
Season stats
Seattle Seahawks
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
26.2
-
Passing yds / game
219.8
218.6
Rushing yds / game
131.5
98.5
Passing TD / game
1.12
1.25
Rushing TD / game
1.12
0.25
Washington Commanders
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
19.4
-
Passing yds / game
182.1
229.6
Rushing yds / game
133.8
149.8
Passing TD / game
0.88
1.75
Rushing TD / game
1.12
1.12
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Seahawks vs Commanders on Phins Up.