Vikings vs Buccaneers — NFL Week 3 Model Projection
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 16:05 ET · Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Minnesota Vikings
52.6%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
47.4%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-1.5
Total
42.5
Minnesota Vikings moneyline
-122
Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline
+102
Season stats
Minnesota Vikings
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
20.6
-
Passing yds / game
153.4
165.9
Rushing yds / game
114.2
113.2
Passing TD / game
1.0
0.38
Rushing TD / game
1.12
0.62
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
19.4
-
Passing yds / game
200.8
246.8
Rushing yds / game
117.0
98.2
Passing TD / game
1.12
1.88
Rushing TD / game
0.75
0.62
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Vikings vs Buccaneers on Phins Up.