Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 20:20 ET · Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
Los Angeles Rams
46.5%
55.1%
-8.7%
Denver Broncos GOOD VALUE
53.5%
44.9%
+8.7%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-2.5
Total
45.5
Los Angeles Rams moneyline
-135
Denver Broncos moneyline
+114
Season stats
Los Angeles Rams
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
28.4
-
Passing yds / game
307.1
259.6
Rushing yds / game
125.5
128.9
Passing TD / game
2.12
2.12
Rushing TD / game
1.0
1.0
Denver Broncos
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
20.9
-
Passing yds / game
216.5
190.4
Rushing yds / game
99.5
121.9
Passing TD / game
1.38
1.5
Rushing TD / game
0.62
0.62
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Rams vs Broncos on Phins Up.