Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Kansas City Chiefs
85.8%
Miami Dolphins
14.2%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-11.5
Total
45.5
Kansas City Chiefs moneyline
-850
Miami Dolphins moneyline
+575
Season stats
Kansas City Chiefs
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
17.4
-
Passing yds / game
188.2
195.0
Rushing yds / game
109.9
107.2
Passing TD / game
0.88
1.25
Rushing TD / game
0.62
0.5
Miami Dolphins
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
18.8
-
Passing yds / game
187.1
234.8
Rushing yds / game
130.8
123.0
Passing TD / game
0.75
1.88
Rushing TD / game
1.12
1.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Chiefs vs Dolphins on Phins Up.