Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
What the market says
Team
Fair win %
Los Angeles Chargers
25.9%
Buffalo Bills
74.1%
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
The posted line
Spread (home)
7.0
Total
50.5
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline
+270
Buffalo Bills moneyline
-340
Season stats
Los Angeles Chargers
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
17.4
-
Passing yds / game
193.6
225.1
Rushing yds / game
120.2
100.1
Passing TD / game
1.0
1.0
Rushing TD / game
0.75
0.38
Buffalo Bills
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
29.6
-
Passing yds / game
248.1
190.8
Rushing yds / game
149.2
120.9
Passing TD / game
2.0
1.88
Rushing TD / game
1.62
1.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Chargers vs Bills on Phins Up.