Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Chargers vs Bills — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Highmark Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Los Angeles Chargers25.9%
Buffalo Bills74.1%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)7.0
Total50.5
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline+270
Buffalo Bills moneyline-340

Season stats

Los Angeles ChargersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game17.4-
Passing yds / game193.6225.1
Rushing yds / game120.2100.1
Passing TD / game1.01.0
Rushing TD / game0.750.38
Buffalo BillsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game29.6-
Passing yds / game248.1190.8
Rushing yds / game149.2120.9
Passing TD / game2.01.88
Rushing TD / game1.621.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Chargers vs Bills on Phins Up.