Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Raiders vs Saints — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 16:25 ET · Caesars Superdome (dome)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Las Vegas Raiders39.1%
New Orleans Saints60.9%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)3.0
Total43.5
Las Vegas Raiders moneyline+145
New Orleans Saints moneyline-175

Season stats

Las Vegas RaidersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game14.1-
Passing yds / game173.1193.6
Rushing yds / game79.1123.4
Passing TD / game1.380.88
Rushing TD / game0.121.38
New Orleans SaintsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game22.6-
Passing yds / game280.8183.2
Rushing yds / game95.8122.1
Passing TD / game1.381.12
Rushing TD / game0.880.62
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Raiders vs Saints on Phins Up.