Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Jets vs Lions — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Ford Field (dome)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
New York Jets27.8%
Detroit Lions72.2%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)6.5
Total48.5
New York Jets moneyline+245
Detroit Lions moneyline-305

Season stats

New York JetsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game14.2-
Passing yds / game169.6234.4
Rushing yds / game104.0141.2
Passing TD / game0.52.38
Rushing TD / game0.751.25
Detroit LionsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game27.5-
Passing yds / game285.0289.5
Rushing yds / game113.1130.1
Passing TD / game1.882.0
Rushing TD / game1.251.12
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Jets vs Lions on Phins Up.