Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 20:15 ET · Lambeau Field (outdoors)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
Atlanta Falcons GOOD VALUE
31.8%
28.6%
+3.2%
Green Bay Packers
68.2%
71.4%
-3.2%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
6.0
Total
44.5
Atlanta Falcons moneyline
+235
Green Bay Packers moneyline
-290
Season stats
Atlanta Falcons
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
21.4
-
Passing yds / game
201.8
236.6
Rushing yds / game
132.4
102.4
Passing TD / game
1.38
1.38
Rushing TD / game
0.62
0.5
Green Bay Packers
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
22.1
-
Passing yds / game
247.8
231.5
Rushing yds / game
115.1
142.5
Passing TD / game
2.0
2.0
Rushing TD / game
0.5
1.25
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Falcons vs Packers on Phins Up.