Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 3

Ravens vs Cowboys — NFL Week 3 Model Projection

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 16:25 ET · Maracana Stadium

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Baltimore Ravens58.3%
Dallas Cowboys41.7%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)-3.0
Total52.5
Baltimore Ravens moneyline-155
Dallas Cowboys moneyline+130

Season stats

Baltimore RavensOffenseDefense allows
Points / game26.6-
Passing yds / game200.4266.0
Rushing yds / game180.587.5
Passing TD / game1.01.12
Rushing TD / game2.01.12
Dallas CowboysOffenseDefense allows
Points / game24.4-
Passing yds / game278.0258.4
Rushing yds / game125.6123.0
Passing TD / game1.381.88
Rushing TD / game1.121.75
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Ravens vs Cowboys on Phins Up.