Monday, September 28, 2026 · 20:15 ET · Soldier Field (outdoors)
Model vs market
Team
Model win %
Fair win %
Edge
Philadelphia Eagles
49.7%
60.4%
-10.7%
Chicago Bears GOOD VALUE
50.3%
39.6%
+10.7%
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
The posted line
Spread (home)
-3.0
Total
44.5
Philadelphia Eagles moneyline
-170
Chicago Bears moneyline
+142
Season stats
Philadelphia Eagles
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
20.9
-
Passing yds / game
198.1
167.9
Rushing yds / game
131.1
132.0
Passing TD / game
1.62
1.0
Rushing TD / game
0.75
1.12
Chicago Bears
Offense
Defense allows
Points / game
29.4
-
Passing yds / game
263.4
273.1
Rushing yds / game
143.6
127.0
Passing TD / game
2.0
1.88
Rushing TD / game
1.38
1.0
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Eagles vs Bears on Phins Up.