Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 20:35 ET · Melbourne Cricket Ground (dome)
| Team | Model win % | Fair win % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers GOOD VALUE | 42.9% | 34.2% | +8.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 57.1% | 65.8% | -8.7% |
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
| Spread (home) | 3.5 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers moneyline | +180 |
| Los Angeles Rams moneyline | -218 |
Final: SF 27 — 7 LA
The model picked LA — wrong. The market picked LA — wrong.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| San Francisco 49ers | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.6 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 227.0 | 198.1 |
| Rushing yds / game | 119.6 | 125.8 |
| Passing TD / game | 2.0 | 1.25 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Los Angeles Rams | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 33.1 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 321.2 | 267.9 |
| Rushing yds / game | 141.4 | 113.5 |
| Passing TD / game | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.25 | 1.0 |