Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 20:20 ET · Lumen Field (outdoors)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 40.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 60.0% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | 3.0 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| New England Patriots moneyline | +140 |
| Seattle Seahawks moneyline | -166 |
Final: NE 10 — 13 SEA
The model picked SEA — correct. The market picked SEA — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| New England Patriots | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.8 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 232.9 | 169.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 149.2 | 115.1 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Seattle Seahawks | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.2 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 225.9 | 216.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 135.5 | 99.9 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.12 | 0.25 |