Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Acrisure Stadium (outdoors)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 28.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 71.8% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | 6.5 |
| Total | 40.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons moneyline | +240 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline | -298 |
Final: ATL 13 — 20 PIT
The model picked PIT — correct. The market picked PIT — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Atlanta Falcons | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.1 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 211.8 | 265.0 |
| Rushing yds / game | 133.0 | 103.5 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.6 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 209.0 | 234.0 |
| Rushing yds / game | 117.1 | 127.8 |
| Passing TD / game | 0.75 | 1.88 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.38 | 0.5 |