Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 1

Cardinals vs Chargers — NFL Week 1 Model Projection

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 16:25 ET · SoFi Stadium (dome)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Arizona Cardinals21.3%
Los Angeles Chargers78.7%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)8.5
Total47.5
Arizona Cardinals moneyline+350
Los Angeles Chargers moneyline-455

Result

Final: ARI 26 — 14 LAC

The model picked LACwrong. The market picked LAC — wrong.

These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.

Season stats

Arizona CardinalsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game19.1-
Passing yds / game284.2247.0
Rushing yds / game70.2141.4
Passing TD / game1.882.62
Rushing TD / game0.251.25
Los Angeles ChargersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game16.4-
Passing yds / game182.2209.6
Rushing yds / game115.4109.6
Passing TD / game0.881.0
Rushing TD / game0.620.75
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Cardinals vs Chargers on Phins Up.