Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Reliant Stadium (closed)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 50.4% |
| Houston Texans | 49.6% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | -1.5 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Buffalo Bills moneyline | -112 |
| Houston Texans moneyline | -108 |
Final: BUF 36 — 31 HOU
The model picked HOU — wrong. The market picked BUF — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Buffalo Bills | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.4 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 221.8 | 171.1 |
| Rushing yds / game | 169.6 | 112.6 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.88 | 1.62 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.5 | 0.88 |
| Houston Texans | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 25.9 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 229.6 | 207.5 |
| Rushing yds / game | 110.0 | 93.4 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.25 | 1.62 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.62 | 0.5 |