Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 1

Saints vs Lions — NFL Week 1 Model Projection

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Ford Field (dome)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
New Orleans Saints26.6%
Detroit Lions73.4%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)7.0
Total49.5
New Orleans Saints moneyline+260
Detroit Lions moneyline-325

Result

Final: NO 30 — 31 DET

The model picked DETcorrect. The market picked DET — correct.

These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.

Season stats

New Orleans SaintsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game21.0-
Passing yds / game264.8173.0
Rushing yds / game99.6110.6
Passing TD / game1.250.88
Rushing TD / game0.750.5
Detroit LionsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game24.8-
Passing yds / game291.1255.1
Rushing yds / game101.8137.2
Passing TD / game1.751.62
Rushing TD / game1.01.12
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Saints vs Lions on Phins Up.