Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 1

Bears vs Panthers — NFL Week 1 Model Projection

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Chicago Bears60.0%
Carolina Panthers40.0%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)-3.0
Total47.5
Chicago Bears moneyline-166
Carolina Panthers moneyline+140

Result

Final: CHI 59 — 37 CAR

The model picked CHIcorrect. The market picked CHI — correct.

These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.

Season stats

Chicago BearsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game25.0-
Passing yds / game249.0256.8
Rushing yds / game142.4122.2
Passing TD / game1.881.75
Rushing TD / game0.880.75
Carolina PanthersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game20.6-
Passing yds / game220.1216.2
Rushing yds / game91.1136.6
Passing TD / game1.621.25
Rushing TD / game0.621.38
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Bears vs Panthers on Phins Up.