Monday, September 14, 2026 · 20:15 ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
| Team | Model win % | Fair win % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos GOOD VALUE | 59.3% | 45.7% | +13.5% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 40.7% | 54.3% | -13.5% |
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
| Spread (home) | 2.5 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Denver Broncos moneyline | +110 |
| Kansas City Chiefs moneyline | -130 |
Final: DEN 10 — 31 KC
The model picked DEN — wrong. The market picked KC — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Denver Broncos | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.0 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 240.2 | 204.1 |
| Rushing yds / game | 102.8 | 112.2 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.38 | 1.5 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.88 | 0.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 15.9 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 199.8 | 215.5 |
| Rushing yds / game | 90.1 | 107.0 |
| Passing TD / game | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.5 | 0.62 |