Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 16:25 ET · Allegiant Stadium (dome)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 39.6% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 60.4% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | 3.0 |
| Total | 40.5 |
| Miami Dolphins moneyline | +142 |
| Las Vegas Raiders moneyline | -170 |
Final: MIA 13 — 27 LV
The model picked MIA — wrong. The market picked LV — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Miami Dolphins | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.9 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 181.2 | 253.0 |
| Rushing yds / game | 146.1 | 117.6 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.0 | 1.75 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.25 | 1.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 12.8 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 182.9 | 199.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 66.2 | 128.4 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.12 | 1.25 |