Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 1

Commanders vs Eagles — NFL Week 1 Model Projection

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 16:25 ET · Lincoln Financial Field (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
Washington Commanders31.9%
Philadelphia Eagles68.1%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)6.0
Total43.5
Washington Commanders moneyline+200
Philadelphia Eagles moneyline-245

Result

Final: WAS 22 — 24 PHI

The model picked PHIcorrect. The market picked PHI — correct.

These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.

Season stats

Washington CommandersOffenseDefense allows
Points / game19.4-
Passing yds / game188.2244.2
Rushing yds / game128.9161.0
Passing TD / game0.881.75
Rushing TD / game1.121.38
Philadelphia EaglesOffenseDefense allows
Points / game20.5-
Passing yds / game208.9191.6
Rushing yds / game122.0131.1
Passing TD / game1.381.0
Rushing TD / game1.01.12
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Commanders vs Eagles on Phins Up.