Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 64.5% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | 3.5 |
| Total | 50.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline | +170 |
| Cincinnati Bengals moneyline | -205 |
Final: TB 27 — 33 CIN
The model picked CIN — correct. The market picked CIN — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.0 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 195.4 | 254.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 131.1 | 97.1 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.25 | 2.12 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.8 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 255.5 | 220.9 |
| Rushing yds / game | 110.2 | 125.2 |
| Passing TD / game | 2.12 | 1.25 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.75 | 0.75 |