Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · EverBank Stadium (outdoors)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 20.9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 79.1% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | 8.5 |
| Total | 40.5 |
| Cleveland Browns moneyline | +360 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline | -470 |
Final: CLE 10 — 34 JAX
The model picked JAX — correct. The market picked JAX — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Cleveland Browns | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 16.6 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 183.5 | 192.4 |
| Rushing yds / game | 96.9 | 137.2 |
| Passing TD / game | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Rushing TD / game | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.2 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 260.2 | 216.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 104.4 | 83.4 |
| Passing TD / game | 2.62 | 0.62 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.0 | 1.12 |