Phins Up / NFL 2026 / Week 1

Jets vs Titans — NFL Week 1 Model Projection

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Nissan Stadium (outdoors)

What the market says

TeamFair win %
New York Jets48.3%
Tennessee Titans51.7%

Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.

The posted line

Spread (home)1.5
Total39.5
New York Jets moneyline-102
Tennessee Titans moneyline-118

Result

Final: NYJ 23 — 10 TEN

The model picked TENwrong. The market picked TEN — wrong.

These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.

Season stats

New York JetsOffenseDefense allows
Points / game13.1-
Passing yds / game157.2252.0
Rushing yds / game102.5140.9
Passing TD / game0.622.38
Rushing TD / game0.621.5
Tennessee TitansOffenseDefense allows
Points / game19.2-
Passing yds / game185.1267.0
Rushing yds / game107.284.5
Passing TD / game1.252.0
Rushing TD / game0.750.75
Player props for this game — projected passing, rushing and receiving yards, and Anytime TD graded against real DraftKings prices — are on the live site. The model's picks need a free account; the full prop tables are part of a subscription. Open Jets vs Titans on Phins Up.