Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 13:00 ET · Lucas Oil Stadium (closed)
| Team | Fair win % |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 59.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 40.7% |
Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. It is the market's number, not ours. Our model's own win probability for this game is part of a subscription. The three primetime games each week, Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, are free to everyone: see this week's.
| Spread (home) | -3.0 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens moneyline | -162 |
| Indianapolis Colts moneyline | +136 |
Final: BAL 41 — 23 IND
The model picked BAL — correct. The market picked BAL — correct.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Baltimore Ravens | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.4 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 184.0 | 259.6 |
| Rushing yds / game | 178.2 | 88.0 |
| Passing TD / game | 0.88 | 1.0 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.0 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 209.0 | 260.8 |
| Rushing yds / game | 109.6 | 118.6 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.0 | 1.25 |