Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 20:20 ET · MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
| Team | Model win % | Fair win % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 48.1% | 60.0% | -11.8% |
| New York Giants GOOD VALUE | 51.9% | 40.0% | +11.8% |
Model win % is our own Elo rating, fit on real 2019-2025 results and carried forward through every completed game since. It never looks at a betting line. Fair win % is what this game's real posted opening moneyline implies once the sportsbook's own margin is removed. GOOD VALUE means the model is higher than the market on that side — a disagreement, not a guarantee.
| Spread (home) | -3.0 |
| Total | 47.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys moneyline | -166 |
| New York Giants moneyline | +140 |
Final: DAL 20 — 28 NYG
The model picked NYG — correct. The market picked DAL — wrong.
These are the numbers that were on screen before kickoff. They are not rewritten after the fact.
| Dallas Cowboys | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 26.0 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 289.6 | 259.4 |
| Rushing yds / game | 131.2 | 105.8 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.0 | 1.62 |
| New York Giants | Offense | Defense allows |
|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.0 | - |
| Passing yds / game | 217.8 | 208.4 |
| Rushing yds / game | 141.8 | 140.0 |
| Passing TD / game | 1.0 | 1.25 |
| Rushing TD / game | 1.38 | 1.12 |